🚆🇵🇰 China Exits CPEC ML-1, Pakistan Eyes ADB
🚆🇵🇰 CPEC Updates 2025: China Exits ML-1, Pakistan Turns to ADB for Rail Revival
Introduction
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—once hailed as a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic revival—has entered turbulent waters. The withdrawal of Chinese funding from the Main Line-1 (ML-1) railway expansion marks a turning point in Pakistan’s infrastructure ambitions and regional partnerships. As Islamabad turns to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for a potential $2 billion loan, this development could reshape not only Pakistan’s transport network but also the future of Belt and Road cooperation in South Asia.
What Is the ML-1 Project?
The ML-1 railway upgrade aimed to modernize Pakistan’s primary north-south railway line spanning 1,872 kilometers from Karachi to Peshawar. It promised:
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Faster passenger trains (up to 160 km/h)
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Increased cargo capacity to boost trade
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Creation of tens of thousands of jobs during construction
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Improved safety with modern signaling systems
For years, ML-1 was viewed as CPEC’s “crown jewel” and a symbol of China-Pakistan strategic ties.
Why China Withdrew Support
Analysts suggest multiple reasons behind Beijing’s decision:
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Economic Pressures in China: Slower growth and debt concerns have pushed China to reassess overseas investments.
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Political Risk in Pakistan: Ongoing political instability and security concerns along CPEC routes have dampened enthusiasm.
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Shifting Geopolitics: China is recalibrating its Belt and Road Initiative amid global pushback and a desire to focus on projects with quicker returns.
Pakistan’s Pivot to ADB
With China stepping back, Pakistan has approached the Asian Development Bank for financing. The initial plan is to fund the Karachi–Rohri section, considered the most commercially viable. However, ADB loans often include strict oversight, environmental reviews, and financial transparency requirements.
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Potential Benefits: Multilateral scrutiny could improve governance and efficiency.
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Potential Challenges: Approval timelines and conditionalities may delay progress.
Economic and Social Stakes
Pakistan’s rail network is decades old and inefficient, with freight largely shifted to congested highways. Modernizing ML-1 is crucial for:
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Reducing transportation costs for goods
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Reviving Pakistan Railways as a profitable enterprise
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Stimulating regional trade by connecting Gwadar Port to Central Asia
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Offering employment opportunities in a sluggish job market
Regional and Global Repercussions
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CPEC’s Future: China’s withdrawal raises questions about its long-term commitment to projects in politically sensitive environments.
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Pakistan’s Strategic Balance: Turning to ADB reflects Islamabad’s attempt to diversify partnerships beyond Beijing.
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South Asian Connectivity: A revamped ML-1 would still be vital for trade corridors linking China, Central Asia, and the Middle East.
Public Reaction and Expert Opinions
Economists and policymakers are divided. Some see the move as a wake-up call for Pakistan to implement reforms and diversify its funding partners. Others warn that relying on multilateral lenders could increase external debt without guaranteeing long-term stability. Social media is abuzz with debates over whether Pakistan should pursue new alliances or redouble efforts to restore Chinese confidence.
Lessons and Opportunities
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Diversification Matters: Over-reliance on a single partner can leave projects vulnerable to abrupt shifts.
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Transparency Builds Trust: Stronger governance and public accountability could attract reliable investors.
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Domestic Capacity Building: Investing in local engineering and management expertise can reduce dependence on external actors.
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Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Future projects must consider sustainability, given Pakistan’s vulnerability to floods and extreme weather
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